Nifty - Good time to enter(22k) or stay away...

[desiviru]

Until what time? Any specific levels/pattern/news. It'll be helpful if you could share some of your technical knowledge. TIA

No one can time markets. Every time is your own sweet time. It's always better to regret with no more virtual loss (when price move up from where you sold) than actual loss which you will have when price come down from level you didn't took exit at.

I am/was always fine with regretting with virtual loss than actual loss. 🙂 Problem here is the markets which were to fall gradually, fell in instant and now we can't even say this recovery as recovery because at 23500 last time when it was taking support, some were for hoping for recovery till 25K which also didn't came. So we are still in down than up.

People compare temporary lows as a mark to compare today's gain. A new low below 21750 will come again and at that time people will be cursing themselves not to take exit between 23K-24K. So this cycle will keep coming and going and I can assure you majority wont be able to time it.

Those who were not able to exit at highs before are looking at these level to correct their mistakes. Although index is up by 500 pts but stocks are having meagre gains and still 40-45% down from where they were. This temporary FII inflows is only till USA markets don't stablize. At the end money will flow back to US markets again. Tariffs were not the reason when money started flowing out of India since Sept 2024. But people here forget things much sooner and start beliving the temporary shifts. This is not how investments are made by real investors. This is traders market currently and investors dont have much here to look at.

 

[cardio_guycardio_guy is verified member.]

Today's Nifty value 23320. Expected Nifty closing: 30000

Time	Annual Return % (CAGR)
1 Year	28.63%
2 Years	13.47%
3 Years	8.78%
4 Years	6.54%
5 Years	5.17%

If Nifty is currently at 23,320 and reaches 30,000, we can calculate the return using this formula:

Return % = [(Final Value - Initial Value) / Initial Value] × 100

So,
Return % = [(30,000 - 23,320) / 23,320] × 100 = (6,680 / 23,320) × 100 ≈ 28.63%

This is the total return. Now let's break it down into annual returns (CAGR) over 1 to 5 years.

---

1-Year Return
If it takes 1 year to reach 30,000 from 23,320, the return is 28.63%. Since it's only 1 year, the compound return is the same as total return.

2-Year Return
Over 2 years, the Compound Annual Growth Rate (CAGR) is:
CAGR = [(30000 / 23320)^(1/2)] - 1 ≈ 13.47% per year

---

3-Year Return
For 3 years,
CAGR = [(30000 / 23320)^(1/3)] - 1 ≈ 8.78% per year

4-Year Return
For 4 years,
CAGR = [(30000 / 23320)^(1/4)] - 1 ≈ 6.54% per year

5-Year Return
For 5 years,
CAGR = [(30000 / 23320)^(1/5)] - 1 ≈ 5.17% per year

So in short:

• 1 year: 28.63%
• 2 years: ~13.47% annually
• 3 years: ~8.78% annually
• 4 years: ~6.54% annually
• 5 years: ~5.17% annually

CAGR Table for Nifty moving from 23,320 to 35,000:​

Duration	Annual Return (CAGR)
1 Year	50.09%
2 Years	22.44%
3 Years	14.47%
4 Years	10.65%
5 Years	8.45%

 

[hender]

Today's Nifty value 23320. Expected Nifty closing: 30000

Time	Annual Return % (CAGR)
1 Year	28.63%
2 Years	13.47%
3 Years	8.78%
4 Years	6.54%
5 Years	5.17%

If Nifty is currently at 23,320 and reaches 30,000, we can calculate the return using this formula:

Return % = [(Final Value - Initial Value) / Initial Value] × 100

So,
Return % = [(30,000 - 23,320) / 23,320] × 100 = (6,680 / 23,320) × 100 ≈ 28.63%

This is the total return. Now let's break it down into annual returns (CAGR) over 1 to 5 years.

---

1-Year Return
If it takes 1 year to reach 30,000 from 23,320, the return is 28.63%. Since it's only 1 year, the compound return is the same as total return.

2-Year Return
Over 2 years, the Compound Annual Growth Rate (CAGR) is:
CAGR = [(30000 / 23320)^(1/2)] - 1 ≈ 13.47% per year

---

3-Year Return
For 3 years,
CAGR = [(30000 / 23320)^(1/3)] - 1 ≈ 8.78% per year

4-Year Return
For 4 years,
CAGR = [(30000 / 23320)^(1/4)] - 1 ≈ 6.54% per year

5-Year Return
For 5 years,
CAGR = [(30000 / 23320)^(1/5)] - 1 ≈ 5.17% per year

So in short:

• 1 year: 28.63%
• 2 years: ~13.47% annually
• 3 years: ~8.78% annually
• 4 years: ~6.54% annually
• 5 years: ~5.17% annually

CAGR Table for Nifty moving from 23,320 to 35,000:​

Duration	Annual Return (CAGR)
1 Year	50.09%
2 Years	22.44%
3 Years	14.47%
4 Years	10.65%
5 Years	8.45%

Pl add if 1.6, 2.3, 3.7, 4.4 and so on...