guruji how come u exactly predicted the future & what was the logic ?
My prediction was based on :
When 100 % of exit polls predicted 350+ above for a
third term govt…
When there is no independent major media house left and these days everything was stage managed across the world not just in India..
I felt it was too good to be true.. and eventually it was the gut feel and sometimes you can’t explain everything…
Some points occurred to me include:
1) I know for sure , it is very difficult to get 272+ for a single party for the third term.
2) The incumbent campaign was not convincing and there was no single agenda this election was fought on..all agenda items artificially made..
3) the campaign’s tag line of 400 seats minimum itself shows the weakness of the campaign..
They wanted to project that win was already confirmed and 400 seats were already given.. this itself was a mind game and showed their weakness in their campaign ..
You need to read in between lines..
4)!by that time market had already priced in the bumper victory…
When there was no independent media left and everyone sings the same song and market rocketed up already and it was the third term for the existing government, I thought this was a pure game play and hence called it…
One thing is for sure, the govt functioning for the next 5 years won’t be the same as the last decade..and so as markets.. there will be quite more swings in the market…
We need to assess periodically say once in every 6 to 12 months.. I am not saying it will be weak govt…
Remember PV Narasimha Rao successfully led a single party minority govt for full 5 years term with tremendous achievements.. it is achievable but it all depends on how the captain steers the ship…
At the moment the ship is in the safe hands of an able captain… but the captain this time has to depend upon unreliable two first officers…
Everything will be rosy at the beginning.. the captain’s ability will be tested in the due course..
Immediate thing to watch now in the next week..
What kind of portfolios the NDA partners will get apart from BJP..
If the significant portfolios are conceded to the partners if it looks like the captain is not fully in charge of the ship, the market will react negatively..
If somehow the captain gives a notion to the market that he is fully in charge of the ship he himself is calling the shots and if markets believe it then the rally continues with some healthy correction initially …
Everything is now on the negotiation table as we speak…
